I Promessi Sposi (The Betrothed). 

Sport, and life, seems to work hard to bring things together exactly as they were maybe always meant to be. Destiny appears to enjoy mapping out long and winding roads, to simply bring us to where we were inevitably going to end up.

Some will say that this is just a romantic’s delusion, but sport is absolutely in this storytelling game. In Italian it’s all called Provvidenza.

So you can’t observe the perfection of set-up in the baseball World Series, and not see it as some kind of deliberate reminder of an “old America”, exactly at the time when an existential election is being fought over what that country’s future culture should be. What timing.

Baseball is (old) America’s pastime and this clip is the brand. Take five minutes to get a hankie.

 

For many, this is a perfect articulation of the country that so many of us have admired, and to which we have aspired. A lighthouse of ambition and opportunity, based on the core values of the pioneer.

Is this heaven? No, it’s Iowa.

This week Freddie Freeman did something that goes beyond any sportbiz commentary of storms or lifeboats, and just overwhelms any analysis of MLB business models and media rights. Who cares really?

This is baseball. Look how he drops the bat. It reeks of John Wayne.

Click below to see every commentator’s reaction to the walk-off Grand Slam Home Run. 😮

GONE! ADIOS! Are you frickin’ kidding me?

Sport, as a “product”, is just unrivalled when it does this, especially when the hero is so obviously virtuous and worthy. His interviews post-match, remembering his dad (and mum), could in fact have been scripted by Costner.

He is now immortal, and I like to think that this was always his destiny, his Provvidenza.

 

Long and winding roads of unscripted drama. 

This Sunday offers perhaps another example of Provvidenza, that this time centres around the Italian town that has been my home for 18 years and counting. 

Francesco Totti, arguably the greatest ever Italian player, certainly one of the most beautiful, is 48 years old. What is going on? 

Totti has always had the total admiration of all those who really know the game, but one can never ever fully articulate what that fuss is really all about. 

For a connoisseur of the true beauty of our game, he really is Picasso. All fathers pushed time hard, to accelerate the footballing maturity of their sons, so they could bond together over seeing him play.
– Albachiara Sunday Column, 2019

This is a player who refused Real Madrid, and all the others, to wear only one strip, La Roma!

Here, for those who want a better idea, is the obligatory highlights reel. 

Francesco Totti is the King of Rome. He is, and will be, the best player I ever saw. – Diego Maradona

Let’s put that down to a wee bit of hyperbole, but you get the idea. And Diego, perhaps alone, always knew how this long and winding road of destiny would end. 

Francesco is so good that he could play until 50!

What a story that would be.

But why come back for Como, a team which has never won anything, and until very recently was in the 4th division, with a crumbling stadium, playing in front of only a handful of ultra fans?

We need to answer that question for this Sunday’s Column, and the response could maybe also hold a glimpse of the possible future for Italian football.

Why Como?

 

Como has always been a “destination”. 

In the 17th to early 19th century, the wealthy of the UK and Northern Europe took a (long and winding) road called the Grand Tour. 

A traditional trip through Europe, with Italy as a key destination, undertaken by upper-class young European men of sufficient means and rank, when they had come of age. The custom served as an educational rite of passage. The primary value of the Grand Tour lay in its exposure to the cultural legacy of classical antiquity and the Renaissance, and to the aristocratic and fashionably polite society of the European continent. It also provided the only opportunity to view specific works of art, and possibly the only chance to hear certain music. A Grand Tour could last anywhere from several months to several years. It was commonly undertaken in the company of a Cicerone, a knowledgeable guide or tutor. – Wikipedia.

Clearly a different world to today, proud and protective of the glorious culture and teachings of the Old Continent of Greece, Rome and Florence.

Where did you go, Joe Di Maggio?

The specific itinerary of the Tour was flexible and changeable, but it almost always included Como, in itself unique and enchanting, but also as the lake setting of one of the great classics of that Italian literature they studied.

A book exactly about destiny and la Provvidenza.

 

“I Promessi Sposi” (The Betrothed.) 

You can not graduate well from the Italian school system without a competent knowledge of this classic book, written 185 years ago and still so modern and current. It is seen as a test of how much you have really understood the DNA of this country, and is the most famous and widely read novel in the Italian language.

And that’s a high bar. 

The novel deals with a variety of themes, for example: the illusory nature of political power and the inherent injustice of any legal system; the range of characters among the Christian clergy, from the cowardice of the parish priest Don Abbondio to the heroic sanctity of others (the friar Padre Cristoforo, the cardinal Federico Borromeo); and the unwavering strength of love (Renzo and Lucia, and their struggle to finally meet again and be married). The novel is renowned for offering keen insights into the meanderings of the human mind. – Wikipedia

“Wuthering Heights“ meets “A Tale of Two Cities“.

If this book is ultimately about Provvidenza, it is so fitting this Sunday that it also has played such a crucial role in my own story, and everything I have done in the last few years, certainly in sport content.

Here is the tale of that long and very winding road.

About 7 years ago, thanks to the vision of Raffaella, Albachiara found itself very involved in the delivery of executive education to major corporates. She had seen the clear opportunity to use a collection of eclectic humans, all with bizarre career experiences in art, music, advertising, sport, publishing, and turn them into executive trainers. (All this remains part of the Albachiara Corporate Learning offering today).

From a small initial assignment, with EY Consultancy, on communication skills, it grew ultimately into delivering the entire internal MBA courses for all their new hires. We put roughly two thousand bright young minds through our lectures rooms. The program won awards and many of those kids still like to stay in touch today.

 

Knowledge Transfer in a Digital World

I had always been very sceptical about this idea, and needed to be dragged kicking and screaming into creating and delivering the IP. Raffa insisted. 

They want a course on elevator pitching and insight selling. In English. You’re up, Roger.

Necessity, I guess, is always the mother of invention. What was the best pitch I ever saw?

You’d note how he starts with a joke, makes the recipient relax with the quick swiping of slides, until he deliberately leaves the big message hanging there for what seems an eternity. Then, he goes back at the end to a joke, to relieve the (sexual) tension and impact. A masterpiece of a deck and delivery.

You’d then ask the students:

Did it work? What do you think she is thinking when she goes back to her boyfriend? The purpose of any elevator pitch isn’t to close there and then; that’s just impossible. You are only planting a seed, placing a doubt, creating curiosity. And you’ll close next time.

That session worked well.

Raffaella put us into pairs, as we were all in reality just winging it, in a kind of pulp-fiction approach to learning, throwing ideas at the wall, and hoping that at least one of us would “bring it” on the day. I was paired with a certain Jacopo Ziliotto, and that was, on reflection, “a natural evolution” 😊 🥹. Jacopo also fought the idea of teaching, but Raffaella usually wins these battles, and she knew he had the chops to deliver a truly innovative course on business writing skills: through the visual arts.

 

The art of synthesis with Jac the Lad.

The infamous (Neutron) Jack Welsh of GE always said that if a person couldn’t summarise an issue on one side of A4, they didn’t really understand the brief. Jacopo Zilotto, a laconic smiling hippy, thought the same, but took a kinder approach to teaching the art of writing a good summary. An artist’s approach. 

Many readers will now know Jac, especially his latest genius offering around our Summit’s Book of Brilliant Things.

He started his courses using the intro credits to “The Big Chill“, explaining the talent of the director in so quickly setting the scene of the plot and characters. With no words. 

I was totally sold from the opening vocal of Marvin Gaye, and over the course of an hour, we saw a room of bored know-it-all Bocconi alumni all putting their phones down to listen.

Jac followed that up after coffee with a session asking them all individually to summarise the afore-mentioned “I Promessi Sposi“. They all obviously knew this book well, but few could tightly articulate its complexity. Via images drawn in front of them, Jac showed how to place so many characters into a challenging narrative. Spectacular.

I saw the future of didactic content right there. The source of the Nile. It is fair to say that there would be no book, no podcasts, no Columns, no Summit, without being forced into this teaching. It’s that important.

En passant, those were great days, emotional memories, as we were in reality chalk and cheese, but with a common love of film, football and beauty. We both especially enjoyed seeing the new students arrive each Monday, noting the “elegance” of the mid-20s Italian professional girls, in cute tailored consultant suits. Our future common creation of Monique, from the McKinsey Sports Practice, had to come from somewhere right? 

 

Welcome to Italy.

Some countries have just got natural advantages like this. I chuckle when travelling football fans visit Italy, and DM me on arriving.

Man, I’m at a pavement cafe, just watching the world go by. Have I got especially lucky, or is this quantity and quality of young lady normal here?

Welcome to Italy, my friend!

This indeed is Italy: a place that will never deny the truth about all kinds of beauty, and where there is almost a moral obligation to comment on it, whether Monica Bellucci or Michelangelo Buonarroti.

But jokes aside, there has to be a very serious point here, and it is this.

In the imminent world of ubiquitous AI and depressing de-industrialisation [see the previous two Columns], the future of nation states and politics comes down to a simple question:

How do we attract capital and elite humans to our country? People will just shop around for where to reside and raise their families, in the best tax-efficient way. Why us? 

Each country now needs to work out its own elevator pitch, to compete in that battle. And Italy has such a huge opportunity in front of it, based on a clear advantage.

It was the destination of the Grand Tour 300 years ago and it still is, for exactly the same reasons. Education, culture, beauty, quality of life. 

🎶 the answer was here all the time 🎶

Here is another Grand Tour, enjoying the charms of Como.

 

The Italian Unique Selling Proposition (USP)

In a world of diluting cultures, Italy stands almost alone, with say Japan, in trying to maintain its traditional pillars of value and differentiation. In a world of cut-and-paste high streets, full of the same shops, restaurants and pubs, Italy is still noticeably very individual and artisan. In a world of guilt-trips about the “sins of empire”, the original one still prefers to focus on the glory of the one or two positives. 

Certain people will be attracted to that kind of thinking more and more. Especially the outlier talents. Italy has always been a country of special adventurers, explorers, scientific innovators, engineers, musicians, artists, and sporting heroes.

As eye-candy it is almost unique in having the rare combination of mountains of snow, white beaches, cities of art, and rolling countryside, where Trieste and Palermo book-end a peninsula offering true diversity.

Italians are blessed with the sun on their back and the most varied, healthy cuisine in the world. All enjoyed with a soundtrack of millennial church bells, and the clear core concept of family. And they always love a laugh.

All this is the definition of unique competitive advantage and, as remote work and communications become evermore feasible, why would you then ever want to live in Reading? Or Boise, Idaho? Or Baden Baden? Especially when the Italian government is now putting out the tax red carpet, for foreigners to relocate.

The Grand Tour wasn’t a fluke. Italy has always attracted the visitor, and that is its destiny again today.

One of those new ones is Indonesian. 

 

Como will become an elite club.  

Maybe this is what Totti sees?

La Provvidenza is, indeed, very strange.

When in 2019, a major Indonesian conglomerate, Djarum, bought the football club in Como, it was a distressed asset, after years of bad owners and mismanagement. Their original idea was to use it as the basis for a reality documentary-series based around young players coming to the lake, to try and become professional footballers. A TV product. 

That plan was snookered before it got started by changes in rules for registering young players, and the new ownership decided to instead make a go of it, as a proper football operation. They brought in Dennis Wise, Thierry Henry, and set their sights high.  

Five years later, Como 1907 is in Serie A, building a new stadium and turning its stunning location into something like a Pier 47 retail and leisure attraction. High quality Michelin restaurants in the stadium itself, to create a genuine world class venue. Match days to actually be a full day on the lake, with concerts before games, and activities for the whole family. Nearby villas secured to expand the capacity and diversity of the various hospitality packages on offer to corporates and sponsors. They are creating a women’s team to complete the brand and widen the audience.

On the men’s football side, their intent is clear. The coach is a world-famous name in Cesc Fàbregas, and the new star-signing from Real Madrid, Raphaël Varane, will join the full Board. They have a very serious idea of planning and running a squad, for example employing state-of-the-art tech like Jamestown for recruiting and tactics.

And now there is him? Er Pupone. The Golden Child.

No Totti, No Party.

 

Italian football will have a Renaissance. 

In the 90s, Serie A was football’s School of Athens.

You were no one if you weren’t playing in Italy.

But over the next thirty years they lost competitiveness, through a weak central league, a poor TV media market, a violent ultra culture and the inability to build modern stadia. Today, even Juventus, Milan, Inter, Roma can’t compete with the monies being offered from richer clubs, like in England. The glory days of the 90s are long gone. 

But tides turn, (good investors spot them), and the whole ecosystem of football is now “evolving”. The polarising differentiator of rights values is maybe now in reverse. Rival domestic football leagues, like France, are now feeling the full force of a deflating broadcast market, and this will come to Germany, Spain and even England soon. 

The playing field is being levelled again.

 

There is a new source of competitive advantage.

Location and the live match-day experience are going to become much more important in sport, especially in attracting new audiences. In Italy’s case those are called, families, females, celebs and tourists. 

Upcoming Como matches will see Keira Knightley (and Benedict Cumberbatch) attend.

Coincidences everywhere this Sunday.

Como is hot like Studio 54, and the increase of tourism in Como since 2006, when we arrived, is noticeable. The place now overflows with foreigners, such that the queues for taxis and lake boats are unacceptably high. Because the demand is there.

The macro future of Italy, as an economy, has to be this, where it has a clear lead over every other country in the world. It has cento centri storici (100 major historic towns) who all are objectively stunning, still exuding their original medieval cultural beauty.

Places like Como, Venice, Florence. But equally as interesting are Palermo, Bari, Lecce, Perugia, Siena. The list is frankly endless. A city like Bergamo is basically unknown to tourism, but by God it is right up there.

So if the local football club can make itself a quality family attraction, on match-day and not, especially for tourists, the revenue prospects will look good. On the recruitment side, players, coaches and executives will all be attracted to bring their families here. Schooling in Italy is extremely good, and the country is in the main safe. 

Good investors always look for sticky competitive advantage like this. To place their capital.

 

Investing into Italian football.

Where are the best deals? Where would Albachiara invest capital? Always start with your investment thesis. Here is ours.

A club with: 

1.

Authentic brand and roots. 

2.

A fan base no longer expectant of results.

3.

The right location for the sport tourism play. 

4.

Ideally a one-club town. 

5.

Local politicians with whom you can do business. 

 

So, who then?

I wouldn’t focus on the big clubs. Too hard, too expensive, fans too demanding.

Como 1907 has been bought and is already on its way. It will one day play in the Champions League. 

Palermo is now owned by the City Group, and can become the team of the entire island of Sicily. An island with a certain fame and brand, and strong links to America. 

We now see Red Bull looking at Torino (a great city, where Il Toro is actually the original club, more so than Juventus). This will be seen to be a great move. So much heritage and backstory from Superga. 

Genoa FC is a more historical club than its city rival Sampdoria, and they are on the block right now, being sold off by the failed 777. A fantastically interesting opportunity.

There are other candidates. 

I like Verona, fitting every single one of the criteria. The Puglia clubs of Bari and Lecce reside in two seaside cities of breathtaking beauty, both authentic and chic cool at the same time. And not expensive. 

Cagliari is maybe the greatest opportunity. The island of Sardinia is still largely untouched outside of the local Italian tourist, and is IMHO the greatest sea and beaches in the world. No exaggeration. With elite golf courses and established facilities for the rich, like Porto Cervo, it is ready to become important at the glamour end of football. And you have a whole island as a catchment area. 

 

Caveat Emptor. 

No matter how good any investment thesis stacks up, doing anything in Italy is all about due diligence. The entire history of foreign M&A into Italy has been one of being utterly screwed.

Over 40 years I have seen Anglo-Saxon corporates and funds think of the Italians as fun-loving lightweights, easily dominated. Wrong. Behind the smiles over lunch and wine, they are working out exactly how and where to shaft you. And if they do, they will feel no shame. It’s not personal, only business.

All is fair in love and war. And business.

So if you want to deploy capital in Italy, believe nothing, leave no stone unturned, question everything, and get the best advice. Don’t rely on fate or destiny.

In Italian business and football, as an investor, you will always need to make your own Provvidenza.

 

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